Vigilant Investor

Don’t Be a Fall Guy!

Who We Are

When not blogging about issues that the mainstream investment, economics, and finance media glosses over, the primary contributors to this site are principles of Pittsburgh based Ernharth Group, an investment consulting firm. If you are interested in learning more about our services, including:

• Fiduciary Consulting services for Investment Stewards (corporate retirement plan sponsors, investment committee members, trustees, union leaders, and government officials).
• Portfolio Management for Surviving and Surfing the Great Credit Bubble Unwind
• Qualified Plan Design Consulting

Contact us immediately by visiting our Firm’s site via the links above.

Vigilant Investor Purpose

With the intent of providing sufficient warning to investors of all types — entrepreneurs, businesspeople, and families — we discuss the many flaws in the almost always perma-bullish economic outlook generated from most of Wall Street, an attitude of consensus that then trickles down to local brokerage branches and community investment advisory firms. We criticize glaring misassumptions by policy makers, from the Fed to Congress to the Treasury — issues that are glossed over by the mainstream financial media either on TV or in print, both of which earn advertising revenue directly from Wall Street.  How you invest your time, money, effort, etc. is what we hope we might influence.

So far we have been (and remain) well ahead of the curve reporting on:

• Despite assurances from Greenspan, Bernanke, Lereah, and most of Wall Street, housing was in an unsustainable bubble and would crash badly and lead to a recession.
• Housing and shoddy mortgages are not the root problem, but a symptom of a larger Credit Bubble.
• Despite assurances that housing had bottomed at various points in 2006 and 2007, that the breakdown was still in its infancy.
• Subprime problems would not remain contained and would spread throughout the financial system because credit bubbles by definition distort price relationships.
• In Summer 2007, housing still has a long way to go downward.

Predictions as of September 7, 2007

• Housing will still lead to a recession
• This recession will be severe unless successfully papered over, which will lead to bad inflation problems.
• Recession will likely be a stagflationary recession.
• The Fed will continue to lose its ability to manage the dollar.
• Foreigners will begin repudiating dollars, resulting in the dollar dropping substantially.
• Foreigners will demand higher risk and inflation premiums for lending to the U.S., and U.S. interest rates will be forced upward on all debt, including treasuries.
• The $400 trillion derivatives market will be exposed and unleash unprecedented mayhem.

What We Are Not

We are not an investment advice site, a stock recommendation and hot-tip site, nor are we absorbed with presenting detail on how to maximize tax loopholes and navigate the ludicrous minefield of rules and regulations created to make your lives miserable and enrich the pockets of the planning community. Such complexity has indeed turned the a fairly basic concept into the obstacle-riddled environment it has become, today requiring a myriad of expensive advisers ranging from CPAs to Tax and Estate Attorneys, to CFPs and elder planners, degreed insurance advisers, and even College Planning specialists. Accommodating those man-made shackles is the material for other sites.

Regards

Johannes Ernharth, AIFA^®
Editor, Vigilant Investor
Lead Strategist, Ernharth Group

Stephan Ernharth, JD, AIFA^®