Aug 09 2007
Say Hello to My Little Friend — Hyperinflation!
“The Fed’s going to have to ease…When you take it all the way out, you realize in the end it’s all collateralized by somebody’s house, which isn’t worth what they said it was worth when they borrowed the money for the house.”
– Peter Yastrow, market strategist with MF Global, on CNBC
We’re not trying to be smug – or to sound like we’re bragging. However, as our regular readers know – we’ve been predicting the latest events for a while. Do we deserve a pat on the back? We don’t know about that. Our humble selves would feel kind of embarrassed. Especially since we consider having predicted currently unwinding economic events sort of like saying that in December – it’s probably going to get cold and snowy north of the Mason Dixon Line.
To reprise our (dead accurate) mantra – the massive expanding of credit over the last 20 years sure has been quite stimulating to the economy. After all – when someone is willing to lend you a lot of money – you can do a lot of stimulating (see 1990’s). It’s all Jim-Dandy until your credit line runs out. Then you stop stimulating. And then things are bound to slow down (see 2000ish) – unless you can get more credit (see 2001-2007). Then you get deeper into debt. Perhaps you tap out your home equity loan. Then you tap into your credit cards at higher interest rates. And then – the gears begin to slip.
We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again – while the “financial industry” would like you to believe that this is all “Rocket Science” we have news for you – it is not! If you are willing to keep your eyes open, along with retaining your objectivity – it’s all pretty simple.
We have said all along that the reckless lending across the board was going cause serious problems. Leveraged to the gills hedge funds have recently gone bust. Today we learn that French bank BNP Paribas has stopped allowing withdrawals in three large hedge funds – and that due to Gold’s resiliency (a sign of inflation and trouble) — central banks are trying to artificially drive it’s price down. And lastly & predictably – the uber leveraged are being forced to sell their good stuff to meet their loan/margin requirements.
It’s likely to get a lot worse in housing since far more adjustable mortgages await re-sets. Auto is struggling. Borrowers and owners of debt will continue to sink. Credit will dry up. Mergers and Acquisitions will grind a halt along with the economy. And there will be an outcry for the Fed to ease.
And instead of letting a real, painful adjustment to take place – the Fed will acquiesce.
That means a increase in units of currency not matched by an increase in production of goods or hard assets. Say hello to hyperinflation.
